ADBE — Adobe Inc.

Report date: 2026-05-26 | Sector: Technology | Last price: $244.76 | Horizon: 30d | Generated: 2026-05-26T07:00:54.815162Z

Forecast summary

Ensemble point +1.04%

80% CI [-8.37%, +11.76%]

95% CI [-12.81%, +17.93%]

Method dispersion 0.0112

Beats RW baseline YES

MC drift (annual) 21.86%

MC sigma (annual) 44.08%

MC paths 1000

Bull target (90th pct) +22.77% -> $300.50

Base target (50th) +1.55% -> $248.56

Bear target (10th pct) -16.53% -> $204.30

Macro regime risk_on_growth

10y yield 4.56%

3m yield 3.59%

Yield-curve slope +0.97%

VIX level 16.59

VIX z-score (252d) -0.48

Sector ETF XLK

Sector relative (90d) -44.42%

Forecast plot (interactive)

Realised volatility

Yang-Zhang annualized (60d) 44.08%

Close-to-close annualized (60d) 40.60%

Per-method comparison

Method	Weight	Point	80% lo	80% hi	95% lo	95% hi
linear	25.0%	+2.64%	-1.05%	+6.30%	-2.62%	+8.31%
monte_carlo	25.0%	+1.55%	-16.53%	+22.77%	-25.05%	+34.97%
ar1	25.0%	-0.03%	-2.60%	+2.61%	-3.94%	+4.04%
random_walk	25.0%	+0.00%	-13.31%	+15.35%	-19.62%	+24.41%

Factor contributions (interactive waterfall)

Factor contribution table

Factor	Loading	Ticker value	Contribution
value_score	+0.0495	+0.5158	+0.0255
quality_score	+0.0192	+3.0000	+0.0577
momentum_score	+0.0286	-1.6975	-0.0486
lowvol_score	+0.0173	-0.5300	-0.0092
revisions_score	+0.0236	+0.0550	+0.0013
news_activity_score	+0.0402	+0.0000	+0.0000
(intercept)	-	-	-0.0005

Factor decay over horizon

Factor IC over time

Per-factor IC backtest summary

Factor	Mean IC	ICIR	% positive	Cumulative attribution	n periods
value_score	+0.2563	+2.690	100.0%	+0.5383	252
quality_score	+0.1105	+1.096	86.5%	+0.2401	252
momentum_score	+0.1428	+1.354	92.5%	+0.2460	252
lowvol_score	+0.0878	+0.887	82.1%	+0.1870	252
revisions_score	+0.1375	+1.319	88.9%	+0.2738	252
news_activity_score	+0.3540	+3.832	100.0%	+1.0893	252

Snapshot — fundamentals + technical

Market cap $98.93B

P/E (trailing) 14.3

P/B 8.7

Forward P/E 9.3

PEG 0.69

Dividend yield -

Beta 1.42

52w high / low $421.48 / $224.13

Distance from 52w high -41.93%

RSI(14) 47.8

SMA50 / SMA200 $244.89 / $305.79

ATR(14) $9.41

Avg volume (20d) 4.53M

Profit margin 29.48%

ROE 58.77%

Revenue growth (YoY) +12.00%

Earnings growth (YoY) +11.10%

Debt/Equity 58.3

Current ratio 0.91

Short ratio 3.35

Forecast accuracy — walk-forward backtest (60d lookback)

Horizon	n predictions	Directional accuracy	MAE (return)	RMSE	80% CI hit rate	Pearson(pred, real)
1d	691	50.2%	1.48%	2.21%	85.1%	-0.041
30d	662	54.1%	10.38%	12.77%	72.2%	-0.095
60d	632	56.8%	14.85%	18.75%	71.4%	-0.090

Volume momentum (Granville / CGW / Quong-Soudack)

Composite z -0.118

Active signals 7 of 7

MFI(14) 48.85

CMF(20) +0.2093

OBV z (252d) -1.116

VPT z (252d) -1.643

VW-momentum z +0.875

Volume z (60d) -0.792

Relative volume (vs 20d ADV) 0.83x

CMF z (252d) +2.231

Sector rotation & AI-spillover (v6)

Sector ETF XLK

Rel-return 5d / 20d / 60d -3.47% / -12.13% / -30.42%

Sector mom-z 1m / 3m / 6m +2.27 / +2.72 / +1.64

Rotation phase cyclical

AI-factor beta (60d) -0.682

AI spillover score -0.0626

Risk-off corr regime (60d) 0.33 (>0.6 = risk-off; <0.35 = stock-picking)

Sector breadth (% > SMA50) -

Sector dispersion 20d -

Peer comparison (sector-relative valuation & momentum)

Peer signal

CHEAP LAGGARD

score +0.11 (9 peers)

P/E percentile

0% (0% cheaper than this)

20d momentum percentile

11% (11% lag this)

Market-cap percentile

56%

Peer set (mcap band 0.2x-5x, same sector)

FTNT SNPS CDNS NOW ADP ACN INTU NOK CIEN

9 peers in Technology (mcap band 0.2x-5x); signal=cheap_laggard; score=+0.11

Decision input: cheap_leader → nudge bias one bucket toward LONG; expensive_laggard → nudge toward SHORT; cheap_laggard = value-trap (neutralize); expensive_leader = crowding risk (neutralize). Folded into Claude critique and one-line PM summary.

Multi-timeframe technical analysis (1wk / 1d / 1h)

Per-timeframe verdict (TradingView-style aggregate of 17 indicators: RSI, MACD, BBands, ADX, Stoch, %R, OBV, MFI, CMF, ATR, SMA50/200, EMA9/21, Donchian, price-vs-SMA200). Counts = how many indicators fired BUY / SELL / NEUTRAL; net strength is the weight-sum delta. Crosses (golden/death, MACD signal cross, Donchian breakout) and the SMA200 trend filter carry 1.5x weight.

1wk verdict

NEUTRAL

2 buy / 3 sell / 12 neutral · net -4.0

1d verdict

NEUTRAL

2 buy / 2 sell / 13 neutral · net -1.0

1h verdict

NEUTRAL

1 buy / 3 sell / 13 neutral · net -2.5

1wk NEUTRAL 2/3/12

RSI(14) 37.3

MACD hist +2.5814

Bollinger %b 0.33

ADX(14) 31.9

ATR % 8.92%

MFI(14) / CMF(20) 46.1 / -0.120

Donchian pos / break 0.17

vs SMA200 BELOW

n_bars521

1d NEUTRAL 2/2/13

RSI(14) 47.8

MACD hist +0.0126

Bollinger %b 0.39

ADX(14) 14.0

ATR % 3.84%

MFI(14) / CMF(20) 48.9 / +0.209

Donchian pos / break 0.39

vs SMA200 BELOW

n_bars1253

1h NEUTRAL 1/3/13

RSI(14) 43.2

MACD hist -0.1328

Bollinger %b 0.38 SQUEEZE

ADX(14) 16.8

ATR % 0.97%

MFI(14) / CMF(20) 41.4 / +0.013

Donchian pos / break 0.23

vs SMA200 BELOW

n_bars1729

Cross-timeframe confluence

Confluence LONG (0-1) 0.00

Confluence SHORT (0-1) 0.20

Patterns are intentionally selective (Elder triple-screen, daily/hourly divergence, BB-squeeze+breakout, SMA-alignment, MACD/OBV). Most tickers fire 0-2 patterns on any given day. Below: each pattern with its current state (✓ firing / ✗ not firing).

Long patterns

✗ elder_triple

✗ daily_oversold_hourly_bull

✗ bb_squeeze_break_up

✗ sma_align_long

✗ macd_cross_obv

Short patterns

✗ elder_triple

✗ daily_overbought_hourly_div

✗ bb_squeeze_break_dn

✓ sma_align_short

✗ macd_cross_obv

Intraday nowcast — 1h-bar short-horizon (v6)

Next 24h nowcast

+0.21%

over next 24h on 1h bars

80% band

[-5.16%, +5.89%]

n_bars = 1729 · sigma_1h = 0.0088

Direction vs 30d ensemble

AGREES

1h direction: LONG · 30d direction: LONG

Source: intraday_forecaster_v10_trained_lgbm.
(trained model: 2026-05-26 (0d old), mean_directional_accuracy=0.523, n_features=17) Decision input only -- the 30d ensemble + factor regression remain the primary call. Conflicts surfaced into the Claude critique as horizon_conflict flag when |1h move| > 1%.

Meta-label gate — AFML Ch.3 secondary classifier (v6)

Verdict

meta-label: NEUTRAL

p_take = 0.52 · threshold 0.60

Bias adjustment

meta-label NEUTRAL (p_take=0.52 between 0.40 and 0.60) -- no adjustment.

Method: secondary LightGBM trained on (features + primary direction) -> P(primary is right). Source: meta_labeler_v10_trained_lgbm.
(trained model: 2026-05-26 (0d old), roc_auc=0.641, accuracy=0.608, n_train_rows=8,284) When ABSTAIN with p_take < 1-threshold AND bias non-neutral, the bias is demoted one bucket and a meta_abstain flag is added to the critique. See AFML Ch.3.6 (Lopez de Prado 2018).

Implied vol vs realized vol — options-trade gate (v8 W2)

Regime

VOL PREMIUM

options pricing more vol than realized — consider SELLING premium

IV / RV ratio

1.36

z-score: n/a (insufficient history)

30d IV vs 30d RV

IV 55.6% (Polygon)

RV 40.9% (yang-zhang)

Provenance: source polygon_options:contracts_call; expiry 2026-06-26 (31d) · strike $245.00 · 1 strike(s) used.
Caveat: 15-min delayed end-of-day quotes; free-tier Polygon (no Greeks, no real-time). Regime is qualitative input only — NOT a numeric factor on the regression.

FMP fundamentals & analyst consensus (v7)

Quality / leverage

ROE 63.0%

ROIC -

FCF yield 10.4%

Debt / EBITDA -

Current ratio 0.91

Margins / valuation

Gross margin 89.1%

Operating margin 36.6%

Net margin 29.5%

P/E (TTM) 13.9

EV / EBITDA 10.0

Analyst consensus

Target mean $341.12

Target high / low $450.00 / $220.00

Upside vs last close +39.4%

Revisions score +0.827

Trade-bias signal — foundation for trade-guidance layer

Bias buy

Composite z-score +0.671

Conviction 0.2684692173520197

Recommended playbook A

Suggested position size 0% (no Kelly)

no Kelly: not a conformal singleton (proxy off); singleton-proxy: news_activity_z=+0.00 (nonzero=False), wf30d_dir_acc=0.540785498489426 (>0.55=False)

Strategies on bias side

•ATM long-call (40-60 DTE, delta 0.40-0.55)

•Diagonal call spread (long 90-DTE + short 30-DTE OTM)

•Covered-call overlay on existing long stock

Why this bias

composite_z = +0.67 | bias = buy | conviction = 0.27 | macro_regime = risk_on_growth | ensemble = +1.04%

Sensitivity (OFAT tornado ±1 sd) and stress scenarios

Factor	Loading w_i	Ticker z-value	+1 sd impact	-1 sd impact
value_score	+0.0495	+0.516	+0.0495	-0.0495
news_activity_score	+0.0402	+0.000	+0.0402	-0.0402
momentum_score	+0.0286	-1.698	+0.0286	-0.0286
revisions_score	+0.0236	+0.055	+0.0236	-0.0236
quality_score	+0.0192	+3.000	+0.0192	-0.0192
lowvol_score	+0.0173	-0.530	+0.0173	-0.0173

Stress scenarios (forecast shift from base point)

Scenario	Description	Stressed point	Delta vs base
rates_+100bps	Yield curve +100bps (lowvol -1sd, value -0.5sd)	-1.57%	-4.20%
recession_risk_off	Recession (momentum -1.5sd, lowvol +1sd, news -1sd)	-3.95%	-6.58%
quality_flight	Quality flight (quality +1sd, revisions +1sd, momentum -0.5sd)	+5.49%	+2.86%

Multi-source live sentiment (free real-time)

Composite z-score +0.871

Active signals 3 of 3

Sources stocktwits, apewisdom, iv_skew

StockTwits bull 10

StockTwits bear 1

StockTwits net +0.82

Message volume 28

ApeWisdom mentions 5

24h change +2

Reddit rank 80

25-delta IV skew -0.0551

IV-skew read bullish

Analyst critique

Agreement with model agree_with_caveats

Confidence 0.55

PM one-liner ADBE Technology: quant +1.04%/30d, disp +0.0112, beats RW, macro vol_premium, 1 catalyst(s).

Sensitivity concern If value_score (the highest-loading factor) is mis-measured by +/-1 stdev, the bias likely flips.

What the model may have missed

Peer set (9 Technology names) ranks this ticker in the 0th P/E percentile and 11th momentum percentile (signal: cheap_laggard) -- no decisive sector-relative edge.
1 catalyst(s) (?) scheduled -- model integrates calendar dates but not expected-move size from options skew
IV-RV regime is vol_premium (55.6% IV vs 40.9% RV, ratio 1.36x) -- options pricing more vol than realized; consider SELLING premium (calendars, credit spreads) over naked delta-1.

Critique flags

{'type': 'placebo_audit_failed', 'severity': 'high', 'evidence': 'GT-score 0.53 > 0.5: real-acc 50.2% vs max placebo-acc 53.4% (AMG -0.032)', 'suggested_check': 'setup may be spurious -- inspect feature-importance for noise-like features; consider increased abstention threshold'}

Factor contribution methodology — where the numbers come from

Point return formula (linear factor model): r_hat = alpha + sum_i (w_i × f_i) where w_i is the cross-sectional loading for factor i (estimated from the cross-section of US large-cap names) and f_i is the z-scored factor value for this ticker (Grinold-Kahn winsorization at ±3).

Per-factor contribution shown in the waterfall above is exactly w_i × f_i (decimal-return units), so the bars sum (with intercept) to the linear forecast point. The ensemble point combines linear / Monte Carlo / AR(1) / random-walk per per-method-comparison table.

Bias mapping (composite z-score → LONG/NEUTRAL/SHORT): weighted sum of value (1.0), quality (0.7), momentum (1.0), low-vol (0.5), revisions (1.0), news-activity (0.6); thresholds ±1.0 with macro override (risk-off + LONG → reduce to NEUTRAL; risk-on-growth + SHORT → reduce to NEUTRAL). LONG → Playbook A (long-call / call-debit-spread / covered-call); SHORT → Playbook B (long-put / put-debit-spread / bear-call-spread); NEUTRAL → cash.

Sensitivity (one-factor-at-a-time tornado above): impact = w_i × 1sd per factor (MSCI / Two-Sigma Venn convention). Stress scenarios are canned multi-factor shocks (rates +100bps; recession risk-off; quality flight).

Factor decay uses exponential half-life per factor type: catalysts 7d, news 14d, revisions 30d, momentum 45d, value 90d, quality 90d (Tetlock 2007; Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski 2012). The heatmap above shows contribution × exp(-ln(2) × t / half_life) on a 5-day grid.

Factor IC backtest: Spearman rank correlation between each factor's cross-sectional ranking on day t and the realized h-day-forward return, aggregated across the panel (Grinold-Kahn 2000 ch.4 fundamental law of active management). Source for this report: synthetic_panel_252d_100tickers_seed42 (parallel runner).

Placebo audit (v6, GT-Score): GT-score = 0.53 SPURIOUS — setup likely lacks real signal . Computed from 3 seed(s) across placebo kinds: shuffled, gaussian_iid, garch. Method: real directional accuracy = 50.2%; max placebo accuracy = 53.4%; AMG = -0.032. Source: placebo_audit_v6_ar1_runner. Provenance: arXiv 2604.15531 "Spurious Predictability in Financial ML" (Paper #3). Risk-flag spurious_predictability_audit_failed added to narrative.

Catalysts in window (30d)

Date	Type	Source	Confidence	Description
2026-06-11	earnings	yahoo	high	Earnings announcement (ADBE)

Analyst narrative

Bull case

ADBE ensemble forecast is +1.04% with 80% band [-8.37%, +11.76%] over 30 days. Positive drivers: quality_score, value_score. 1 catalyst(s) in the window provide event-driven upside potential.

Bear case

Inter-method dispersion (+0.0112) and beats random-walk argue caution. Negative drivers: momentum_score. Macro regime risk_on_growth historically caps single-name conviction.

Synthesis

Weight the ensemble's +1.04% center against +0.0112 method dispersion. Risk On Growth regime + 1 catalyst(s) define the setup. Treat the 80% band as the working trade-sizing envelope.

Risk flags

spurious_predictability_audit_failed (GT-score=0.53 > 0.5; AMG=-0.032)