AMD — Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.

Report date: 2026-05-25 | Sector: Technology | Last price: $467.51 | Horizon: 30d | Generated: 2026-05-25T21:24:16.671987Z

Forecast summary

Ensemble point -2.41%

80% CI [-16.72%, +15.74%]

95% CI [-22.98%, +27.09%]

Method dispersion 0.0257

Beats RW baseline YES

MC drift (annual) -30.97%

MC sigma (annual) 67.22%

MC paths 1000

Bull target (90th pct) +25.49% -> $586.69

Base target (50th) -6.04% -> $439.26

Bear target (10th pct) -30.33% -> $325.73

Macro regime risk_on_growth

10y yield 4.56%

3m yield 3.59%

Yield-curve slope +0.97%

VIX level 16.59

VIX z-score (252d) -0.48

Sector ETF XLK

Sector relative (90d) +84.26%

Forecast plot (interactive)

Realised volatility

Yang-Zhang annualized (60d) 67.22%

Close-to-close annualized (60d) 70.41%

Per-method comparison

Method	Weight	Point	80% lo	80% hi	95% lo	95% hi
linear	25.0%	-3.62%	-7.30%	+0.04%	-8.88%	+2.05%
monte_carlo	25.0%	-6.04%	-30.33%	+25.49%	-40.87%	+45.00%
ar1	25.0%	+0.04%	-4.93%	+5.27%	-7.46%	+8.15%
random_walk	25.0%	+0.00%	-24.33%	+32.15%	-34.71%	+53.17%

Factor contributions (interactive waterfall)

Factor contribution table

Factor	Loading	Ticker value	Contribution
value_score	+0.0495	-3.0000	-0.1484
quality_score	+0.0192	-0.6937	-0.0134
momentum_score	+0.0286	+3.0000	+0.0858
lowvol_score	+0.0173	-2.0203	-0.0349
revisions_score	+0.0236	+3.0000	+0.0709
news_activity_score	+0.0402	+0.1071	+0.0043
(intercept)	-	-	-0.0005

Factor decay over horizon

Factor IC over time

Per-factor IC backtest summary

Factor	Mean IC	ICIR	% positive	Cumulative attribution	n periods
value_score	+0.2563	+2.690	100.0%	+0.5383	252
quality_score	+0.1105	+1.096	86.5%	+0.2401	252
momentum_score	+0.1428	+1.354	92.5%	+0.2460	252
lowvol_score	+0.0878	+0.887	82.1%	+0.1870	252
revisions_score	+0.1375	+1.319	88.9%	+0.2738	252
news_activity_score	+0.3540	+3.832	100.0%	+1.0893	252

Snapshot — fundamentals + technical

Market cap $762.32B

P/E (trailing) 156.4

P/B 11.8

Forward P/E 36.1

PEG 1.12

Dividend yield -

Beta 2.40

52w high / low $481.41 / $108.62

Distance from 52w high -2.89%

RSI(14) 72.6

SMA50 / SMA200 $303.19 / $230.88

ATR(14) $25.24

Avg volume (20d) 42.39M

Profit margin 13.37%

ROE 8.06%

Revenue growth (YoY) +37.80%

Earnings growth (YoY) +91.20%

Debt/Equity 6.0

Current ratio 2.73

Short ratio 0.90

Forecast accuracy — walk-forward backtest (60d lookback)

Horizon	n predictions	Directional accuracy	MAE (return)	RMSE	80% CI hit rate	Pearson(pred, real)
1d	691	50.9%	2.52%	3.63%	82.3%	-0.026
30d	662	53.6%	20.37%	27.80%	70.8%	+0.020
60d	632	49.1%	33.18%	42.80%	62.5%	-0.017

Volume momentum (Granville / CGW / Quong-Soudack)

Composite z +0.784

Active signals 7 of 7

MFI(14) 69.74

CMF(20) +0.2320

OBV z (252d) +1.970

VPT z (252d) +1.684

VW-momentum z +0.616

Volume z (60d) -0.293

Relative volume (vs 20d ADV) 0.82x

CMF z (252d) +1.359

Sector rotation & AI-spillover (v6)

Sector ETF XLK

Rel-return 5d / 20d / 60d +7.43% / +17.72% / +58.33%

Sector mom-z 1m / 3m / 6m +2.27 / +2.72 / +1.64

Rotation phase cyclical

AI-factor beta (60d) +1.469

AI spillover score +0.1350

Risk-off corr regime (60d) 0.33 (>0.6 = risk-off; <0.35 = stock-picking)

Sector breadth (% > SMA50) -

Sector dispersion 20d -

Peer comparison (sector-relative valuation & momentum)

Peer signal

MIXED

score -0.32 (9 peers)

P/E percentile

88% (88% cheaper than this)

20d momentum percentile

56% (56% lag this)

Market-cap percentile

89%

Peer set (mcap band 0.2x-5x, same sector)

MU ASML INTC ORCL CSCO LRCX AMAT PLTR ARM

9 peers in Technology (mcap band 0.2x-5x); signal=mixed; score=-0.32

Decision input: cheap_leader → nudge bias one bucket toward LONG; expensive_laggard → nudge toward SHORT; cheap_laggard = value-trap (neutralize); expensive_leader = crowding risk (neutralize). Folded into Claude critique and one-line PM summary.

Multi-timeframe technical analysis (1wk / 1d / 1h)

Per-timeframe verdict (TradingView-style aggregate of 17 indicators: RSI, MACD, BBands, ADX, Stoch, %R, OBV, MFI, CMF, ATR, SMA50/200, EMA9/21, Donchian, price-vs-SMA200). Counts = how many indicators fired BUY / SELL / NEUTRAL; net strength is the weight-sum delta. Crosses (golden/death, MACD signal cross, Donchian breakout) and the SMA200 trend filter carry 1.5x weight.

1wk verdict

NEUTRAL

4 buy / 6 sell / 7 neutral · net -7.5

1d verdict

NEUTRAL

3 buy / 7 sell / 7 neutral · net -4.5

1h verdict

NEUTRAL

3 buy / 2 sell / 12 neutral · net +3.0

1wk NEUTRAL 4/6/7

RSI(14) 79.9

MACD hist +25.9220

Bollinger %b 1.05

ADX(14) 31.9 RISING

ATR % 8.84%

MFI(14) / CMF(20) 91.7 / +0.131

Donchian pos / break 0.95

vs SMA200 ABOVE

n_bars522

1d NEUTRAL 3/7/7

RSI(14) 72.6

MACD hist -1.5050

Bollinger %b 0.81

ADX(14) 46.6

ATR % 5.40%

MFI(14) / CMF(20) 69.7 / +0.232

Donchian pos / break 0.92

vs SMA200 ABOVE

n_bars1254

1h NEUTRAL 3/2/12

RSI(14) 64.4

MACD hist +1.8389

Bollinger %b 0.79

ADX(14) 31.3 RISING

ATR % 1.78%

MFI(14) / CMF(20) 49.1 / -0.066

Donchian pos / break 0.72

vs SMA200 ABOVE

n_bars1729

Cross-timeframe confluence

Confluence LONG (0-1) 0.20

Confluence SHORT (0-1) 0.00

Patterns are intentionally selective (Elder triple-screen, daily/hourly divergence, BB-squeeze+breakout, SMA-alignment, MACD/OBV). Most tickers fire 0-2 patterns on any given day. Below: each pattern with its current state (✓ firing / ✗ not firing).

Long patterns

✗ elder_triple

✗ daily_oversold_hourly_bull

✗ bb_squeeze_break_up

✓ sma_align_long

✗ macd_cross_obv

Short patterns

✗ elder_triple

✗ daily_overbought_hourly_div

✗ bb_squeeze_break_dn

✗ sma_align_short

✗ macd_cross_obv

Implied vol vs realized vol — options-trade gate (v8 W2)

Regime

NEUTRAL

no decisive vol mispricing — delta-1 setup over options

IV / RV ratio

0.77

z-score: n/a (insufficient history)

30d IV vs 30d RV

IV 69.6% (Polygon)

RV 91.0% (yang-zhang)

Provenance: source polygon_options:contracts_call; expiry 2026-06-26 (32d) · strike $470.00 · 1 strike(s) used.
Caveat: 15-min delayed end-of-day quotes; free-tier Polygon (no Greeks, no real-time). Regime is qualitative input only — NOT a numeric factor on the regression.

FMP fundamentals & analyst consensus (v7)

Quality / leverage

ROE 7.8%

ROIC -

FCF yield 1.1%

Debt / EBITDA -

Current ratio 2.72

Margins / valuation

Gross margin 50.3%

Operating margin 11.7%

Net margin 13.4%

P/E (TTM) 152.2

EV / EBITDA 94.1

Analyst consensus

Target mean $437.59

Target high / low $579.00 / $260.00

Upside vs last close -6.4%

Revisions score -0.134

Trade-bias signal — foundation for trade-guidance layer

Bias neutral

Composite z-score -0.893

Conviction 0.35714739222479586

Recommended playbook cash

Macro override risk_on_growth_downweights_bearish

Strategies on bias side

•Cash / no position

•Iron condor if IV rank > 50

•Wait for next factor refresh

Why this bias

Sensitivity (OFAT tornado ±1 sd) and stress scenarios

Factor	Loading w_i	Ticker z-value	+1 sd impact	-1 sd impact
value_score	+0.0495	-3.000	+0.0495	-0.0495
news_activity_score	+0.0402	+0.107	+0.0402	-0.0402
momentum_score	+0.0286	+3.000	+0.0286	-0.0286
revisions_score	+0.0236	+3.000	+0.0236	-0.0236
quality_score	+0.0192	-0.694	+0.0192	-0.0192
lowvol_score	+0.0173	-2.020	+0.0173	-0.0173

Stress scenarios (forecast shift from base point)

Scenario	Description	Stressed point	Delta vs base
rates_+100bps	Yield curve +100bps (lowvol -1sd, value -0.5sd)	-7.82%	-4.20%
recession_risk_off	Recession (momentum -1.5sd, lowvol +1sd, news -1sd)	-10.20%	-6.58%
quality_flight	Quality flight (quality +1sd, revisions +1sd, momentum -0.5sd)	-0.76%	+2.86%

Multi-source live sentiment (free real-time)

Composite z-score +1.281

Active signals 3 of 3

Sources stocktwits, apewisdom, iv_skew

StockTwits bull 5

StockTwits bear 0

StockTwits net +1.00

Message volume 30

ApeWisdom mentions 70

24h change -13

Reddit rank 5

25-delta IV skew -0.1804

IV-skew read bullish

Analyst critique

Agreement with model agree_with_caveats

Confidence 0.45

PM one-liner Mild short tilt (-2.4%) driven by valuation drag offsetting momentum/revisions strength; wide confidence bands and IV underpricing realized vol warrant caution on directional conviction.

Sensitivity concern If value_score improves by 1 stdev (multiple compression slows), the -14.8% drag halves to ~-7%, flipping the ensemble point return from -2.4% to potentially positive

What the model may have missed

AI chip competitive dynamics and NVDA's roadmap announcements that could shift AMD's data center share expectations
Potential for tariff/geopolitical escalation impacting Taiwan foundry supply chains (TSMC exposure)
Broader semiconductor inventory cycle inflection signals from distributors not captured in factor scores

Critique flags

{'type': 'factor_conflict', 'severity': 'high', 'evidence': 'value_score=-3.0 contributes -14.8% drag while momentum_score=+3.0 and revisions_score=+3.0 each add ~8-7%, creating offsetting signals on a -2.4% point forecast', 'suggested_check': "Verify if AMD's valuation premium (PE percentile=87.5%) is justified by growth expectations or if multiple compression risk dominates near-term"}
{'type': 'model_uncertainty', 'severity': 'medium', 'evidence': '95% CI spans -23% to +27% with method_dispersion=2.6%; monte_carlo=-6.0% vs ar1=+0.04% shows 6pp method disagreement', 'suggested_check': "Stress-test the linear model's -3.6% vs monte_carlo's -6.0% split to understand which macro path each assumes"}
{'type': 'regime_mismatch', 'severity': 'medium', 'evidence': 'IV-RV ratio=0.765 (regime=neutral) but realized vol (YZ=91%) is 19% higher than 30d IV (70%), suggesting options underpricing recent turbulence', 'suggested_check': 'Check if recent RV spike is earnings-related or sustained; if sustained, premium selling is mispriced and vol could reprice higher'}
{'type': 'peer_outlier', 'severity': 'low', 'evidence': 'AMD at PE percentile=87.5% vs Technology peers (9 names) with peer_signal=mixed and peer_score=-0.32 suggests relative richness not rewarded by momentum (momentum_percentile=56%)', 'suggested_check': "Compare AMD's NTM growth vs NVDA/ASML to justify premium; if growth delta narrowing, valuation gap becomes a headwind"}

Factor contribution methodology — where the numbers come from

Point return formula (linear factor model): r_hat = alpha + sum_i (w_i × f_i) where w_i is the cross-sectional loading for factor i (estimated from the cross-section of US large-cap names) and f_i is the z-scored factor value for this ticker (Grinold-Kahn winsorization at ±3).

Per-factor contribution shown in the waterfall above is exactly w_i × f_i (decimal-return units), so the bars sum (with intercept) to the linear forecast point. The ensemble point combines linear / Monte Carlo / AR(1) / random-walk per per-method-comparison table.

Bias mapping (composite z-score → LONG/NEUTRAL/SHORT): weighted sum of value (1.0), quality (0.7), momentum (1.0), low-vol (0.5), revisions (1.0), news-activity (0.6); thresholds ±1.0 with macro override (risk-off + LONG → reduce to NEUTRAL; risk-on-growth + SHORT → reduce to NEUTRAL). LONG → Playbook A (long-call / call-debit-spread / covered-call); SHORT → Playbook B (long-put / put-debit-spread / bear-call-spread); NEUTRAL → cash.

Sensitivity (one-factor-at-a-time tornado above): impact = w_i × 1sd per factor (MSCI / Two-Sigma Venn convention). Stress scenarios are canned multi-factor shocks (rates +100bps; recession risk-off; quality flight).

Factor decay uses exponential half-life per factor type: catalysts 7d, news 14d, revisions 30d, momentum 45d, value 90d, quality 90d (Tetlock 2007; Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski 2012). The heatmap above shows contribution × exp(-ln(2) × t / half_life) on a 5-day grid.

Factor IC backtest: Spearman rank correlation between each factor's cross-sectional ranking on day t and the realized h-day-forward return, aggregated across the panel (Grinold-Kahn 2000 ch.4 fundamental law of active management). Source for this report: synthetic_panel_252d_100tickers_seed42 (calibrated to Gu/Kelly/Xiu 2020 RFS factor magnitudes; replace with A.3 universe panel once A.3 fetchers run).

Catalysts in window (30d)

No catalysts within the forecast window.

Analyst narrative

Bull case

Strong momentum (score 3.0) and positive revisions (score 3.0) contribute +0.086 and +0.071 respectively to expected return. The macro regime is risk_on_growth with Technology sector outperforming by 84.3% over 90 days, and VIX at 16.59 signals low volatility environment. The 95% confidence interval permits upside to +27.09%, with the ensemble beating random walk baseline.

Bear case

Point return forecast is -2.41% over 30 days, with weak value score (-3.0) contributing -0.148 as the dominant negative factor. Method dispersion of 0.026 and lowvol score (-2.02) adding -0.035 suggest model uncertainty and volatility headwinds. The 95% confidence interval includes downside risk to -22.98%.

Synthesis

The ensemble forecasts modest negative return of -2.41% with substantial uncertainty (95% CI: -22.98% to +27.09%). Momentum and revisions provide bullish technical support while poor valuation metrics create meaningful drag. The risk_on_growth regime and strong sector performance provide a favorable backdrop, but the negative point estimate and wide dispersion warrant caution.

Risk flags

Value score at -3.0 is severely depressed, contributing -0.148 negative drag
Wide 95% confidence interval spans 50 percentage points (-22.98% to +27.09%)
Point forecast negative across 2 of 3 non-random methods (linear: -3.62%, monte_carlo: -6.04%)
Method dispersion of 0.026 indicates modest model disagreement