TRI — Thomson Reuters Corporation

Report date: 2026-05-26 | Sector: Industrials | Last price: $85.86 | Horizon: 30d | Generated: 2026-05-26T07:02:45.254149Z

Forecast summary

Ensemble point -5.06%

80% CI [-15.26%, +6.83%]

95% CI [-19.99%, +13.81%]

Method dispersion 0.0510

Beats RW baseline YES

MC drift (annual) -84.43%

MC sigma (annual) 48.38%

MC paths 1000

Bull target (90th pct) +9.95% -> $94.41

Base target (50th) -10.72% -> $76.65

Bear target (10th pct) -28.01% -> $61.81

Macro regime risk_on_growth

10y yield 4.56%

3m yield 3.59%

Yield-curve slope +0.97%

VIX level 16.59

VIX z-score (252d) -0.48

Sector ETF XLI

Sector relative (90d) -35.31%

Forecast plot (interactive)

Realised volatility

Yang-Zhang annualized (60d) 48.38%

Close-to-close annualized (60d) 47.89%

Per-method comparison

Method	Weight	Point	80% lo	80% hi	95% lo	95% hi
linear	25.0%	-9.56%	-13.25%	-5.90%	-14.82%	-3.89%
monte_carlo	25.0%	-10.72%	-28.01%	+9.95%	-36.03%	+22.00%
ar1	25.0%	+0.03%	-3.23%	+3.41%	-4.91%	+5.24%
random_walk	25.0%	+0.00%	-16.56%	+19.85%	-24.19%	+31.90%

Factor contributions (interactive waterfall)

Factor contribution table

Factor	Loading	Ticker value	Contribution
value_score	+0.0495	-0.1829	-0.0091
quality_score	+0.0192	-0.2266	-0.0044
momentum_score	+0.0286	-2.1353	-0.0611
lowvol_score	+0.0173	-0.8946	-0.0155
revisions_score	+0.0236	-0.2200	-0.0052
news_activity_score	+0.0402	+0.0000	+0.0000
(intercept)	-	-	-0.0005

Factor decay over horizon

Factor IC over time

Per-factor IC backtest summary

Factor	Mean IC	ICIR	% positive	Cumulative attribution	n periods
value_score	+0.2563	+2.690	100.0%	+0.5383	252
quality_score	+0.1105	+1.096	86.5%	+0.2401	252
momentum_score	+0.1428	+1.354	92.5%	+0.2460	252
lowvol_score	+0.0878	+0.887	82.1%	+0.1870	252
revisions_score	+0.1375	+1.319	88.9%	+0.2738	252
news_activity_score	+0.3540	+3.832	100.0%	+1.0893	252

Snapshot — fundamentals + technical

Market cap $37.48B

P/E (trailing) 24.7

P/B 3.2

Forward P/E 17.0

PEG 1.29

Dividend yield 305.00%

Beta 0.20

52w high / low $218.42 / $78.60

Distance from 52w high -60.69%

RSI(14) 46.5

SMA50 / SMA200 $88.62 / $122.62

ATR(14) $4.45

Avg volume (20d) 2.20M

Profit margin 19.93%

ROE 12.73%

Revenue growth (YoY) +9.80%

Earnings growth (YoY) +5.60%

Debt/Equity 22.9

Current ratio 0.60

Short ratio 7.09

Forecast accuracy — walk-forward backtest (60d lookback)

Horizon	n predictions	Directional accuracy	MAE (return)	RMSE	80% CI hit rate	Pearson(pred, real)
1d	691	51.7%	1.18%	1.88%	83.4%	-0.007
30d	662	57.7%	7.61%	10.16%	71.5%	+0.303
60d	632	62.3%	11.63%	15.28%	68.4%	+0.402

Volume momentum (Granville / CGW / Quong-Soudack)

Composite z -0.760

Active signals 7 of 7

MFI(14) 44.27

CMF(20) -0.1051

OBV z (252d) -1.904

VPT z (252d) -0.992

VW-momentum z -0.140

Volume z (60d) -1.404

Relative volume (vs 20d ADV) 0.40x

CMF z (252d) -0.234

Sector rotation & AI-spillover (v6)

Sector ETF XLI

Rel-return 5d / 20d / 60d +4.25% / -1.74% / -10.31%

Sector mom-z 1m / 3m / 6m -1.98 / -2.06 / -0.06

Rotation phase cyclical

AI-factor beta (60d) -1.055

AI spillover score -0.0969

Risk-off corr regime (60d) 0.33 (>0.6 = risk-off; <0.35 = stock-picking)

Sector breadth (% > SMA50) -

Sector dispersion 20d -

Peer comparison (sector-relative valuation & momentum)

Peer signal

MIXED

score +0.31 (9 peers)

P/E percentile

25% (25% cheaper than this)

20d momentum percentile

56% (56% lag this)

Market-cap percentile

67%

Peer set (mcap band 0.2x-5x, same sector)

EME ESLT HEI-A WCN HEI SYM CPRT UAL FERG

9 peers in Industrials (mcap band 0.2x-5x); signal=mixed; score=+0.31

Decision input: cheap_leader → nudge bias one bucket toward LONG; expensive_laggard → nudge toward SHORT; cheap_laggard = value-trap (neutralize); expensive_leader = crowding risk (neutralize). Folded into Claude critique and one-line PM summary.

Multi-timeframe technical analysis (1wk / 1d / 1h)

Per-timeframe verdict (TradingView-style aggregate of 17 indicators: RSI, MACD, BBands, ADX, Stoch, %R, OBV, MFI, CMF, ATR, SMA50/200, EMA9/21, Donchian, price-vs-SMA200). Counts = how many indicators fired BUY / SELL / NEUTRAL; net strength is the weight-sum delta. Crosses (golden/death, MACD signal cross, Donchian breakout) and the SMA200 trend filter carry 1.5x weight.

1wk verdict

NEUTRAL

3 buy / 3 sell / 11 neutral · net -2.5

1d verdict

NEUTRAL

1 buy / 4 sell / 12 neutral · net -6.0

1h verdict

NEUTRAL

1 buy / 3 sell / 13 neutral · net -2.5

1wk NEUTRAL 3/3/11

RSI(14) 36.4

MACD hist +1.5505

Bollinger %b 0.30

ADX(14) 37.4

ATR % 12.43%

MFI(14) / CMF(20) 62.5 / -0.192

Donchian pos / break 0.14

vs SMA200 BELOW

n_bars521

1d NEUTRAL 1/4/12

RSI(14) 44.9

MACD hist -0.3000

Bollinger %b 0.32

ADX(14) 12.6

ATR % 5.28%

MFI(14) / CMF(20) 44.3 / -0.105

Donchian pos / break 0.30

vs SMA200 BELOW

n_bars1253

1h NEUTRAL 1/3/13

RSI(14) 51.7

MACD hist +0.0885

Bollinger %b 0.68 SQUEEZE

ADX(14) 21.7 RISING

ATR % 1.27%

MFI(14) / CMF(20) 48.9 / -0.070

Donchian pos / break 0.57

vs SMA200 BELOW

n_bars1729

Cross-timeframe confluence

Confluence LONG (0-1) 0.00

Confluence SHORT (0-1) 0.00

Patterns are intentionally selective (Elder triple-screen, daily/hourly divergence, BB-squeeze+breakout, SMA-alignment, MACD/OBV). Most tickers fire 0-2 patterns on any given day. Below: each pattern with its current state (✓ firing / ✗ not firing).

Long patterns

✗ elder_triple

✗ daily_oversold_hourly_bull

✗ bb_squeeze_break_up

✗ sma_align_long

✗ macd_cross_obv

Short patterns

✗ elder_triple

✗ daily_overbought_hourly_div

✗ bb_squeeze_break_dn

✗ sma_align_short

✗ macd_cross_obv

Intraday nowcast — 1h-bar short-horizon (v6)

Next 24h nowcast

+0.94%

over next 24h on 1h bars

80% band

[-8.30%, +11.10%]

n_bars = 1729 · sigma_1h = 0.0153

Direction vs 30d ensemble

AGREES

1h direction: LONG · 30d direction: SHORT

Source: intraday_forecaster_v10_trained_lgbm.
(trained model: 2026-05-26 (0d old), mean_directional_accuracy=0.523, n_features=17) Decision input only -- the 30d ensemble + factor regression remain the primary call. Conflicts surfaced into the Claude critique as horizon_conflict flag when |1h move| > 1%.

Meta-label gate — AFML Ch.3 secondary classifier (v6)

Verdict

meta-label: ABSTAIN

p_take = 0.36 · threshold 0.60

Bias adjustment

meta-label ABSTAIN with p_take=0.36 -- demoting bias one bucket (was sell).

Method: secondary LightGBM trained on (features + primary direction) -> P(primary is right). Source: meta_labeler_v10_trained_lgbm.
(trained model: 2026-05-26 (0d old), roc_auc=0.641, accuracy=0.608, n_train_rows=8,284) When ABSTAIN with p_take < 1-threshold AND bias non-neutral, the bias is demoted one bucket and a meta_abstain flag is added to the critique. See AFML Ch.3.6 (Lopez de Prado 2018).

FMP fundamentals & analyst consensus (v7)

Quality / leverage

ROE 12.7%

ROIC -

FCF yield -

Debt / EBITDA -

Current ratio 0.60

Margins / valuation

Gross margin 39.5%

Operating margin 30.3%

Net margin 19.9%

P/E (TTM) 24.7

EV / EBITDA 18.3

Analyst consensus

Target mean -

Target high / low - / -

Upside vs last close -

Revisions score +0.000

Trade-bias signal — foundation for trade-guidance layer

Bias sell

Composite z-score -2.379

Conviction 0.9514537411827997

Recommended playbook B

Suggested position size 0% (no Kelly)

no Kelly: not a conformal singleton (proxy off) / meta_p_take=0.36 <= 0.5; singleton-proxy: news_activity_z=+0.00 (nonzero=False), wf30d_dir_acc=0.5770392749244713 (>0.55=True)

Macro override risk_on_growth_downweights_bearish

Strategies on bias side

•Bear put spread (long 0.35-0.45 delta + short 0.15-0.20 delta, 40-60 DTE)

•Long-put for higher gamma on a faster bearish read

•Sell at-the-money covered call against any long position

Why this bias

Sensitivity (OFAT tornado ±1 sd) and stress scenarios

Factor	Loading w_i	Ticker z-value	+1 sd impact	-1 sd impact
value_score	+0.0495	-0.183	+0.0495	-0.0495
news_activity_score	+0.0402	+0.000	+0.0402	-0.0402
momentum_score	+0.0286	-2.135	+0.0286	-0.0286
revisions_score	+0.0236	-0.220	+0.0236	-0.0236
quality_score	+0.0192	-0.227	+0.0192	-0.0192
lowvol_score	+0.0173	-0.895	+0.0173	-0.0173

Stress scenarios (forecast shift from base point)

Scenario	Description	Stressed point	Delta vs base
rates_+100bps	Yield curve +100bps (lowvol -1sd, value -0.5sd)	-13.77%	-4.20%
recession_risk_off	Recession (momentum -1.5sd, lowvol +1sd, news -1sd)	-16.15%	-6.58%
quality_flight	Quality flight (quality +1sd, revisions +1sd, momentum -0.5sd)	-6.70%	+2.86%

Multi-source live sentiment (free real-time)

Composite z-score +1.727

Active signals 2 of 3

Sources stocktwits, iv_skew

StockTwits bull 8

StockTwits bear 3

StockTwits net +0.45

Message volume 30

ApeWisdom mentions 0

24h change +0

Reddit rank -

25-delta IV skew -0.9924

IV-skew read bullish

Analyst critique

Agreement with model agree_with_caveats

Confidence 0.5

PM one-liner TRI Industrials: quant -5.06%/30d, disp +0.0510, beats RW, macro risk_on_growth, 0 catalyst(s).

Sensitivity concern If value_score (the highest-loading factor) is mis-measured by +/-1 stdev, the bias likely flips.

What the model may have missed

Peer set (9 Industrials names) ranks this ticker in the 25th P/E percentile and 56th momentum percentile (signal: mixed) -- no decisive sector-relative edge.
no scheduled catalysts within 30d -- model is a pure factor bet, no event-pricing component
no options-implied vol vs realized vol gap (IV-RV would size delta-1 vs vol-trade choice)

Critique flags

{'type': 'model_uncertainty', 'severity': 'medium', 'evidence': 'method dispersion +0.0510 exceeds 5% (80% band width +22.09%)', 'suggested_check': 'inspect per-method points -- if outlier method drags ensemble, consider trimmed mean or median'}
{'type': 'factor_conflict', 'severity': 'medium', 'evidence': 'momentum_score drives 67% of total contribution -- single-factor bet', 'suggested_check': 'stress-test what TRI looks like if momentum_score z-score reverts to 0'}
{'type': 'meta_abstain', 'severity': 'medium', 'evidence': 'AFML meta-label ABSTAIN with p_take=0.36 (threshold 0.60)', 'suggested_check': 'secondary classifier signals primary is unreliable on this setup; treat as low-conviction or wait for next factor refresh'}
{'type': 'placebo_audit_failed', 'severity': 'high', 'evidence': 'GT-score 0.52 > 0.5: real-acc 51.7% vs max placebo-acc 53.4% (AMG -0.017)', 'suggested_check': 'setup may be spurious -- inspect feature-importance for noise-like features; consider increased abstention threshold'}

Factor contribution methodology — where the numbers come from

Point return formula (linear factor model): r_hat = alpha + sum_i (w_i × f_i) where w_i is the cross-sectional loading for factor i (estimated from the cross-section of US large-cap names) and f_i is the z-scored factor value for this ticker (Grinold-Kahn winsorization at ±3).

Per-factor contribution shown in the waterfall above is exactly w_i × f_i (decimal-return units), so the bars sum (with intercept) to the linear forecast point. The ensemble point combines linear / Monte Carlo / AR(1) / random-walk per per-method-comparison table.

Bias mapping (composite z-score → LONG/NEUTRAL/SHORT): weighted sum of value (1.0), quality (0.7), momentum (1.0), low-vol (0.5), revisions (1.0), news-activity (0.6); thresholds ±1.0 with macro override (risk-off + LONG → reduce to NEUTRAL; risk-on-growth + SHORT → reduce to NEUTRAL). LONG → Playbook A (long-call / call-debit-spread / covered-call); SHORT → Playbook B (long-put / put-debit-spread / bear-call-spread); NEUTRAL → cash.

Sensitivity (one-factor-at-a-time tornado above): impact = w_i × 1sd per factor (MSCI / Two-Sigma Venn convention). Stress scenarios are canned multi-factor shocks (rates +100bps; recession risk-off; quality flight).

Factor decay uses exponential half-life per factor type: catalysts 7d, news 14d, revisions 30d, momentum 45d, value 90d, quality 90d (Tetlock 2007; Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski 2012). The heatmap above shows contribution × exp(-ln(2) × t / half_life) on a 5-day grid.

Factor IC backtest: Spearman rank correlation between each factor's cross-sectional ranking on day t and the realized h-day-forward return, aggregated across the panel (Grinold-Kahn 2000 ch.4 fundamental law of active management). Source for this report: synthetic_panel_252d_100tickers_seed42 (parallel runner).

Placebo audit (v6, GT-Score): GT-score = 0.52 SPURIOUS — setup likely lacks real signal . Computed from 3 seed(s) across placebo kinds: shuffled, gaussian_iid, garch. Method: real directional accuracy = 51.7%; max placebo accuracy = 53.4%; AMG = -0.017. Source: placebo_audit_v6_ar1_runner. Provenance: arXiv 2604.15531 "Spurious Predictability in Financial ML" (Paper #3). Risk-flag spurious_predictability_audit_failed added to narrative.

Catalysts in window (30d)

No catalysts within the forecast window.

Analyst narrative

Bull case

TRI ensemble forecast is -5.06% with 80% band [-15.26%, +6.83%] over 30 days. Positive drivers: no clear drivers. 0 catalyst(s) in the window provide event-driven upside potential.

Bear case

Inter-method dispersion (+0.0510) and beats random-walk argue caution. Negative drivers: momentum_score. Macro regime risk_on_growth historically caps single-name conviction.

Synthesis

Weight the ensemble's -5.06% center against +0.0510 method dispersion. Risk On Growth regime + 0 catalyst(s) define the setup. Treat the 80% band as the working trade-sizing envelope.

Risk flags

wide method dispersion -- model uncertainty elevated
no catalysts in window -- pure factor bet
spurious_predictability_audit_failed (GT-score=0.52 > 0.5; AMG=-0.017)